You have no shimmer of how Trump's agenda will affect

The likelihood that the American economy will slip into a recession has increased in the past two months – but it is not high. The head of the American Central Bank Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is based on this, as he now explained. Washington's central bank directors consider realistic that economic growth in the largest economy in the world is weakening. In fact, you can now see the economic development in the USA more pessimistic than in December: For this year you can only expect economic growth of 1.7 percent after you had assumed significantly more than 2 percent three months ago.

Nevertheless, this did not cause this to reduce the key interest rates now. Initially, these remain between 4.25 and 4.5 percent in the bandwidth. They have been staying there for three months.

This is also due to the fact that inflation is still slightly higher than the desired target brand of 2 percent. And this is where the next explosive problem comes: The American central bankers expect the inflation rate this year. Only slightly from 2.5 percent in January to 2.7 percent. But the reason for the new expectations is tough – it is the import duels introduced by President Donald Trump, said central bank boss Powell. He considers the central bank to take longer to press the inflation rate.

The most important reason that Powell and his colleagues stopped this time lies in the fact that in accordance with almost all professional economic observers they have no shimmer, how the Trump government's economic agenda will affect the economy and price development. The greatest forecast uncertainty is still imposed in relation to the tariffs that Trump has already imposed – and how the trading partners reward them.

At the moment, the Federal Reserve on the base scenario states that the tariffs would only have a temporary effect on price development. This does not mean that tariffs have no effect, but only that they do not necessarily trigger a price increase spiral. Powell also said that it was really unclear how the tariffs would affect.

And his uncertainty does not refer to trading policy alone. The consequences of Trump's immigration policy, deregulation and fiscal policy are also difficult for currency keepers to predict.

Powell and his colleagues always pay close attention to inflation expectations. Because when they slip, then the development that central bankers fear most threatens: In the expectation of higher prices, economic actors themselves enforce higher prices and wages – and thus trigger inflation they expect.

In the short term, the inflation expectations indicate above, which is quite clearly caused by Trump's customs policy. The medium and long-term inflation expectations still seem stable, says (and hopes) Powell.

Another focus of the monetary authorities is the American labor market and here the question of how the layoffs develop. The official unemployment rate has been quite stable for around half a year. Few people are released in historical comparison, but also a few people are hired. Powell, which has so far hardly been significant in this statistics, has so far been significant in this statistics, which was conducted by Trump's advisor and employee Elon Musk. But that could change.

The investors on the financial markets reacted positively to the central bank president's statements. And this is mainly because the majority of the central bankers still consider two key interest rates to be likely this year. The courses of stocks and government bonds recovered, and the value of the dollar also increased. So far.