In an erratic and tricky market, the event that has been expected for months should take place this Wednesday. The FED will announce the revision of its key rate on September 18. This is expected to drop by 0.25% by half of the market players and by 0.50% by the second half. In what context is Bitcoin evolving as this event approaches?
It is Monday, September 16, 2024, and the Bitcoin price is hovering around $59,000.
Only a few days now separate us from the monetary policy event that the market has been waiting for months. The first cut in the FED's key rate arrives this Wednesday, September 18 at 8:00 p.m.
The Fed chairman's speech on Wednesday will likely be more important than the number of basis points the central bank will grant. While it seems unlikely that Jerome Powell will deliver decidedly negative news, his ability to reassure about the jobs market could catalyze markets as we head into late September.
Also expected is his opinion on inflation data, the core component of which, stripped of volatile elements, does not seem to be giving up ground, which could in the medium term rekindle the debate on inflation.
| Pairs with Bitcoin | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Bitcoin / USDT | -2.60% | +5.90% | -1.00% |
| ETH / Bitcoin | -2.10% | -6.10% | -10.60% |
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Speculators optimistic again?
The last few weeks have seen an alternation in the speculative bias of the derivatives markets, sometimes optimistic, sometimes pessimistic, with a very visible alternation of fundings in 4 hours. Since crossing the $58,000 mark, the bias seems to have evolved towards a more optimistic trend with long positions regaining the upper hand.
The sum of open interest is at a high average for the year 2024, close to the pivot but very far from the excesses of August 2023, which suggests that we have room before reaching the speculative breaking point.
Liquidity has regained its balance in the short term, favoring no direction. In the longer term, the most profitable areas are now:
- north above $70,000;
- south under $34,000.
The $70,000 area could therefore be revisited in the coming weeks. That said, this hypothetical rise could require new corrections if buyers unbalance the balance between long and short positions too violently.
Bitcoin Derivatives Markets Chart
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Bitcoin, what are the levels to watch for the future?
The underlying trend is still bullish since the bear market low. Challenging this trend would require price action to settle below $40,000. This is a hypothesis that is, at this stage, difficult to take into consideration.
However, on a weekly basis, price action has been well anchored in a downtrend since March 2024. However, we can observe a nice reaction to the confluence between the weekly SMA50, the lower Bollinger band, and the bottom of the descending channel drawn in blue.
The weekly close confirms the rebound, managing to break free from the body of the previous candle. Despite this, it fails to regain $60,000, a level above which BTC must settle for a continuation towards $65,000.
The bullish camp's objective for the coming weeks is to break through this last resistance level that separates the weekly price action from an uptrend with the bullish realignment of highs and lows.
Conversely, the scenario to avoid is a return to the weekly close below $57,000. This would demonstrate a lack of strength that would not benefit any token in the ecosystem and could lead prices to break the last low point below $52,000.
If a pullback scenario emerges, the early September low would be the final bulwark before revisiting $49,000 and setting up a possible bearish continuation towards the $42,000 to $44,000 area.
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Bitcoin price chart daily
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In summaryon Bitcoin, the weekly close validates the rebound on the $52,000 zone. The objective to resume an upward trend is to cross $65,000. If BTC manages to break free from this zone, it could continue towards $70,000 and more. In this zone it would encounter a very dense pocket of liquidity. The invalidation of this scenario is below $52,000 and the 50-week moving average.
So, do you think BTC can return to an uptrend? Please feel free to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a great day and we'll see you next week for another Bitcoin analysis.
Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Glassnode
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As an analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I conduct in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze upcoming narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
53 articles
