Record-breaking fossil fuel production and global greenhouse gas emissions are driving extreme temperatures. Despite the urgent climate crisis, humanity remains inert. The goal of limiting global climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) warming, once considered achievable, now looks increasingly unrealistic.
Politics sets double standards
“We decided that our comprehensive and holistic plan for Cop28 should revolve around one thing, and that is the North Star,” Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai 2023, said last year. “The climate problem is a threat and must be addressed by everyone.” It should be noted that Dr. Al Jaber is also Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and is therefore himself a major driver of the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels.
However, the oil magnate is not alone in this double-talk. A number of politicians around the world claim to agree with the 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement of 2015, but act contrary to these statements. The apparent consensus is “We can avoid dangerous climate change without taking the necessary measures,” criticize researchers from the universities of Exeter, East Anglia and Lund.
It is urgently necessary to “rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industry, transport, energy (70% of total emissions) and food (30% of total emissions) and at the same time increase energy efficiency.” According to the current state of science, there is simply no other way to stop man-made climate change, they warn.
Dangerous game of overstepping
The concept of “overshooting” allows policymakers to postpone necessary action by promising to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) in the future. This approach risks leading the world into catastrophic climate conditions. The reliance on speculative technologies such as carbon removal and geoengineering distracts attention from the urgent need for immediate decarbonization.
James Dyke, Associate Professor of Earth System Science (University of Exeter), Robert Watson, Emeritus Professor of Environmental Science (University of East Anglia) and Wolfgang Knorr Senior Research Scientist in Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science (Lund University) also warn against false promises that are baseless, particularly the reliance on net-zero targets that involve unproven technologies.
A prime example of this is the insistence of German politicians – especially from the FDP and CDU – on preserving combustion engines using e-fuels. Energy experts such as Volker Quasching and the well-known German physicist and science journalist Harald Lesch have already warned of the problems that could arise from this ignorance.
Failure of the Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement was a milestone in climate diplomacy. But it is now becoming increasingly clear that it has not brought about the necessary measures. Instead of rapid decarbonization, emissions have continued to rise, reaching one all-time high after another.
“We do not deny that significant progress has been made in renewable technologies,” stress Dyke, Watson and Knorr. “The use of wind and solar energy has increased every year for the past 22 years, and carbon emissions are falling in some of the richest countries.” However, this is far from enough and, above all, is not happening fast enough. The research trio is thus joining a scientific consensus that politics and business have ignored for decades.
Given the failure of current climate policies and the increasing dependence on speculative technologies, it is time to rethink the global approach to tackling climate change. The focus must shift from long-term goals and technological solutions to immediate and tangible actions:
No. 1: Leave fossil fuels in the ground
The simplest way to reduce emissions is to stop burning fossil fuels. This means stopping the exploration and exploitation of new fossil fuel reserves and starting a transition away from existing fossil fuels. The food system, especially the livestock sector, must also be transformed, as it contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.
No. 2: Farewell to unrealistic net zero targets
The focus on mid- and late-century net-zero targets should be abandoned, the scientists said, and the focus must be on immediate action, with the aim of halving global emissions by 2030 to have any chance of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius.
No. 3: Base policy on credible science
Climate policies should be based on what can be achieved with current or near-term available technologies. Speculative technologies such as carbon capture and solar geoengineering should not be included in net zero plans until their feasibility and safety are fully demonstrated.
No. 4: Honesty about climate
The world needs a “climate honesty project” that acknowledges the failures of current policies and shows the need for radical change. This includes addressing the enormous inequalities in wealth, carbon emissions and vulnerability to climate change.
Source: The National; The Conversation
By Philipp Rall
