While they have been in range for several weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) still show bullish objectives. Will cryptocurrencies finally manage to soar above their psychological resistance or has the correction begun? Discover the different scenarios in this analysis of the week.
Bitcoin (BTC) in decline
Still in an uptrend above the Kijun and the Ichimoku indicator cloud in Daily, the price of bitcoin (BTC) failed to break through its psychological resistance at the $30,000 level. It has been almost a month now that BTC has been stable and moving in a range between $26,800 and $28,800. So will he be able to break through his resistance in the next few days or will he first offer us new buying opportunities during a correction?
Figure 1 – Bitcoin Daily price chart
As of today, the price is showing a slowdown in its trend after the strong rise of the previous weeks. With the Kijun being away from the Tenkan and prices, this means that the market is currently in an overbought situation. The current lateralization is therefore a good thing since it makes it possible to accumulate new liquidities in order to be able to potentially go higher thereafter, but above all, it allows the Kijun to gradually rise in the direction of prices. This curve acts as a support and as long as it remains below the prices, we can say that the trend remains clearly bullish.
All it will take in the next few days is for the price to finally manage to break its resistance at $28,800 and finally break through the psychological level of $30,000. In case of failure, a Fibonacci retracement allows us to identify the different potential levels of rebound to monitor. There is $25,500 (0.382) which represents psychological support, $24,366 (0.5) which would correspond to a 50% correction of the rise of the last few weeks, then the famous $0.618 to $23,226 which is the healthiest level of correction.
One thing is certain, we will have to stay above the large blue rectangle as much as possible, because it is the previous consolidation of the price. Going back there is never a good sign because we have a lot more liquidity than before, and a breakout is therefore ultimately likely. We must therefore avoid falling below $25,000 to avoid any risk of disillusionment.
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The $30,000 coming soon?
We have already been waiting for several weeks for a return of the price above $30,000 following the breakout of a broadening pattern descending at a right angle at h4. In general, this type of chart pattern offers good upside probabilities and as we can see, already 50% of the upward movement has been achieved. The theoretical objective of this pattern is at $30,620 and will remain valid until the price returns below $25,000.
Figure 2 – Bitcoin price chart (h4)
Inside the current rise, we can observe the construction of a small ascending triangle in which the price has been moving since March 20th. If the resistance level at $28,800 is broken, then the objective of this pattern is also at $30,600. A double objective therefore for Bitcoin in the event of a bullish exit from this range.
If the price were to break this consolidation from below, then a return to the $25,000 level would be preferred (0.382 of the Daily retracement), with the risk of invalidating our bullish objective.
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Ether (ETH) on its way to $2,000?
Regarding the price of Ethereum’s cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), this week it broke an ascending triangle from above on the h4 time unit. This breakout triggered a bullish target at around $2,024, which is the height at the entrance of the triangle, carried over to its breakout.
Figure 3 – Ether price chart (h4)
While the price had reached 50% of its target, the cryptocurrencies however started a correction, with here a perfect pullback of ETH on the previous resistance which has now become a theoretical support. It will therefore take a rebound here to keep the objective triggered. For the moment, the trend remains bullish as long as the price does not go back under the cloud.
If the price goes back below the cloud, it will then break the Kijun downwards, which is a sell signal that should not be overlooked. There would then be risks for the price to return to test its next support at $1,700, or even the next one at $1,600.
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Conclusion of this technical analysis
Cryptocurrencies maintain their bullish targets. However, the prices have entered the consolidation phase and therefore the trends have lost momentum. It will take a new bullish impulse to avoid losing important supports and the start of a correction.
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Chart source: TradingView
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